STRATEGY TRANSLATION ROOM · 12 / 13

Michael Spence

Signalling under information asymmetry

1943–Historical source ≠ validated bid methodReturn to the Conditions Laboratory

LIVE TRANSLATION INSTRUMENT · EDUCATIONAL MODEL

Change the condition, not the history.

The four axes use disclosed visitor inputs. Geometry shows emphasis only; it is not a win score or claim about the original thinker.

ACTIVE STATECALIBRATINGsignal credibility · evidence proximity · decision relevance · imitation difficulty
signal credibilityPRIMARY CONDITION

HISTORY & BOUNDARY

Read the source before borrowing the idea.

Spence’s economic work examined how a better-informed party communicates information to a less-informed party. In bids, private competence is strategically absent until it becomes relevant and credible evidence.

Michael Spence and market signalling · Nobel Prize ↗

SOURCE PRINCIPLES

  1. Signals differ in how costly they are for an incapable party to imitate
  2. The receiver interprets evidence under uncertainty
  3. A signal must be relevant to the decision, not merely impressive

PROCUREMENT TRANSLATION

  1. Replace adjectives with named people, artefacts, baselines, references and commitments
  2. Place proof beside the claim it supports
  3. Select evidence that resolves the evaluator’s particular uncertainty

WHERE THE TRANSLATION STOPS

Credentials and prestige can become empty theatre when they do not evidence the contract requirement.

No historical text overrides procurement law, truthful evidence, equality of treatment, confidentiality, professional ethics or delivery reality.

NEXT TRANSLATION ROOM

W. Ross Ashby

Cybernetics, regulation and requisite variety