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LIVING DECISION FILE · PUBLIC METHOD

A live source can start the question. It cannot answer it alone.

One weekly file develops in three passes: signal, evidence and application. Exact public sources are fetched and tested locally without paid search or editorial model calls.

THE RESEARCH CHAIN

Twelve gates before publication.

  1. 01

    Fix one current subject

    One retained primary record is scored for decision relevance and complete disclosed source coverage. Generic word matches cannot widen it.

  2. 02

    Fetch five live lanes

    The current record, official market data, mechanism research, contrary evidence and implementation evidence remain distinct. Exact routes come from a disclosed subject-source registry, not a paid search prompt.

  3. 03

    Recover mechanism research safely

    A blocked, thin or non-readable result is discarded. Free OpenAlex exact-record retrieval may recover mechanism research; every outside lane still requires a separately retrieved and verified page.

  4. 04

    Retrieve and fingerprint

    Every cited external page is retrieved through a public-address, size-bounded HTTPS path before use and receives a content fingerprint.

  5. 05

    Test the evidence packet

    Five lanes, distinct identities, source families, a current primary trigger and a current external market date must exist before drafting begins. A source family is the disclosed host or official collection shown in the register; it is a diversity check, not proof of independence.

  6. 06

    Normalise time, place and units

    Monthly, quarterly and event data retain their native reference periods. A first-verification date is never presented as a publication date.

  7. 07

    Build the claim ledger

    Every material statement—including the closing interpretation—points to a source or a disclosed calculation and receives one evidence-state label.

  8. 08

    Construct a bounded scenario

    Canonical inputs, formulae, assumptions and outputs remain inspectable. The result is an educational comparison, not a forecast.

  9. 09

    Render locally from the graph

    A deterministic evidence editor constructs qualitative claims, the evidence braid, model language and application rail from the frozen source packet. It cannot introduce another fact or number.

  10. 10

    Run the local adversarial gates

    A separate evidence-graph pass rejects unsupported causality, wrong dates, incompatible geographies, source mismatches, unbounded conclusions and missing counterevidence.

  11. 11

    Stage one recoverable revision

    The stable public file and media update atomically. An immutable protected copy, audit record and transaction receipt preserve every passing revision.

  12. 12

    Publish or retain

    A failed phase does not become filler. The last valid weekly revision remains public while the existing Observatory windows retry later.

EVIDENCE STATES

ObservedCalculatedModelled scenarioEditorial interpretationUnknown

These labels describe the route by which a statement entered the study. They are not confidence theatre and are never collapsed into one opaque score.

SCHEDULE AND RECOVERY

Monday signal · Wednesday evidence · Friday application.

The existing Observatory service checks at 09:15, 13:15, 17:15 and 21:15 Europe/London. Each phase updates the same weekly URL only after every gate passes. Later same-day runs are recovery windows. No additional production timer was created.

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