{
  "id": "LDF-2026W38-0010",
  "slug": "decision-file-2026-w38-why-c-climate-physical-risk-needs-evidence-before-commitment",
  "kind": "field-briefing",
  "kind_label": "Living Decision File",
  "edition": 10,
  "published_at": "2026-09-14T09:07:07.447187+01:00",
  "modified_at": "2026-09-18T09:09:54.674202+01:00",
  "title": "Why C Climate Physical Risk Needs Evidence Before Commitment",
  "standfirst": "A current public record opens “Why C Climate Physical Risk Needs Evidence Before Commitment”. Official context, research, counterevidence and a disclosed scenario test what can responsibly follow.",
  "question": "What must be established before acting on “Why C Climate Physical Risk Needs Evidence Before Commitment”?",
  "human_opening": "The current procurement record establishes the live operating question.",
  "conclusion": "The evidence around “Why C Climate Physical Risk Needs Evidence Before Commitment” defines a decision to test—not an outcome to assume.",
  "conclusion_claim_ids": [
    "claim-conclusion-boundary"
  ],
  "topic_key": "field-briefing",
  "primary_source_id": "find_tender-a41d2ccbd03da63b",
  "evidence_braid": {
    "current_trigger": "The current procurement record establishes the live operating question.",
    "historical_baseline": "The official market release supplies dated external context for the decision.",
    "mechanism_evidence": "The cited research describes a mechanism relevant to the operating question.",
    "organisational_context": "The implementation source identifies conditions that must be tested in practice.",
    "counterevidence": "The counterevidence preserves another explanation and keeps the outcome conditional.",
    "observed_boundary": "The retrieved records establish context and plausible mechanisms; they do not establish a company-specific causal outcome."
  },
  "sections": [
    {
      "eyebrow": "Current record",
      "heading": "What changed now",
      "paragraphs": [
        "The current procurement record establishes the live operating question."
      ],
      "claim_ids": [
        "claim-current-development"
      ]
    },
    {
      "eyebrow": "Market context",
      "heading": "What the wider field shows",
      "paragraphs": [
        "The official market release supplies dated external context for the decision."
      ],
      "claim_ids": [
        "claim-official-market-data"
      ]
    },
    {
      "eyebrow": "Mechanism",
      "heading": "What may explain the movement",
      "paragraphs": [
        "The cited research describes a mechanism relevant to the operating question."
      ],
      "claim_ids": [
        "claim-mechanism-research"
      ]
    },
    {
      "eyebrow": "Counterevidence",
      "heading": "What could change the reading",
      "paragraphs": [
        "The counterevidence preserves another explanation and keeps the outcome conditional."
      ],
      "claim_ids": [
        "claim-contrary-evidence"
      ]
    },
    {
      "eyebrow": "Application",
      "heading": "What practice must establish",
      "paragraphs": [
        "The implementation source identifies conditions that must be tested in practice."
      ],
      "claim_ids": [
        "claim-implementation-evidence"
      ]
    },
    {
      "eyebrow": "Disclosed scenario",
      "heading": "What the model can test",
      "paragraphs": [
        "The retrieved records establish context; they do not establish the scenario result.",
        "The sandbox changes disclosed operating inputs and recomputes comparative indices through a fixed public formula.",
        "Those movements are conditional illustrations, not measured company outcomes, causal findings or forecasts."
      ],
      "claim_ids": [
        "claim-model-productive-capacity",
        "claim-model-contribution-index",
        "claim-model-cash-pressure",
        "claim-model-quality-exposure",
        "claim-model-resilience-index"
      ]
    }
  ],
  "claims": [
    {
      "id": "claim-current-development",
      "text": "The current procurement record establishes the live operating question.",
      "classification": "observed",
      "source_ids": [
        "find_tender-a41d2ccbd03da63b"
      ],
      "calculation_id": "",
      "boundary": "The cited source's scope, period and geography remain controlling."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-official-market-data",
      "text": "The official market release supplies dated external context for the decision.",
      "classification": "observed",
      "source_ids": [
        "field-df286322a61085d74fb7"
      ],
      "calculation_id": "",
      "boundary": "The cited source's scope, period and geography remain controlling."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-mechanism-research",
      "text": "The cited research describes a mechanism relevant to the operating question.",
      "classification": "observed",
      "source_ids": [
        "field-39331504dc7f2db728ca"
      ],
      "calculation_id": "",
      "boundary": "The cited source's scope, period and geography remain controlling."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-contrary-evidence",
      "text": "The counterevidence preserves another explanation and keeps the outcome conditional.",
      "classification": "observed",
      "source_ids": [
        "field-9bb9b142626eddc98720"
      ],
      "calculation_id": "",
      "boundary": "The cited source's scope, period and geography remain controlling."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-implementation-evidence",
      "text": "The implementation source identifies conditions that must be tested in practice.",
      "classification": "observed",
      "source_ids": [
        "field-81a9a6bfe5cc5e80653a"
      ],
      "calculation_id": "",
      "boundary": "The cited source's scope, period and geography remain controlling."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-conclusion-boundary",
      "text": "The evidence around “Why C Climate Physical Risk Needs Evidence Before Commitment” defines a decision to test—not an outcome to assume.",
      "classification": "interpretation",
      "source_ids": [
        "find_tender-a41d2ccbd03da63b",
        "field-9bb9b142626eddc98720"
      ],
      "calculation_id": "",
      "boundary": "The synthesis remains conditional on the cited scope, period and organisation-specific operating context."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-model-productive-capacity",
      "text": "In the disclosed scenario, productive capacity moves as capacity gain, adoption drag and rework change.",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "productive_capacity",
      "boundary": "A relative scenario index; it is not measured output or a forecast."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-model-contribution-index",
      "text": "In the disclosed scenario, the contribution index moves with demand, price, productive capacity and fixed investment.",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "contribution_index",
      "boundary": "A comparative scenario index before tax and finance; it is not profit."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-model-cash-pressure",
      "text": "In the disclosed scenario, cash pressure moves with working-capital days, demand and fixed investment.",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "cash_pressure",
      "boundary": "A directional scenario index; it is not a cash-flow forecast."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-model-quality-exposure",
      "text": "In the disclosed scenario, quality exposure moves with rework, adoption drag and retention.",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "quality_exposure",
      "boundary": "A directional scenario index; it is not an assurance assessment."
    },
    {
      "id": "claim-model-resilience-index",
      "text": "In the disclosed scenario, the resilience index moves with cash pressure, quality exposure and retention.",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "resilience_index",
      "boundary": "A comparative scenario index; it is not organisational resilience certification."
    }
  ],
  "metrics": [
    {
      "id": "model-productive_capacity",
      "label": "Productive capacity",
      "value": "92.34",
      "unit": "index",
      "period": "one planning cycle",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "productive_capacity",
      "formula": "productive_capacity = 100 × (1 + capacity_gain/100) × clamp(1 − adoption_drag/100, 0.2, 1.2) × clamp(1 − rework_rate/100, 0.2, 1.1)",
      "note": "A relative scenario index; it is not measured output or a forecast."
    },
    {
      "id": "model-contribution_index",
      "label": "Contribution",
      "value": "92.76",
      "unit": "index",
      "period": "one planning cycle",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "contribution_index",
      "formula": "contribution_index = 100 × (1 + demand_change/100) × (1 + price_change/100) × productive_capacity/100 − fixed_investment × 0.35",
      "note": "A comparative scenario index before tax and finance; it is not profit."
    },
    {
      "id": "model-cash_pressure",
      "label": "Cash pressure",
      "value": "42.78",
      "unit": "index",
      "period": "one planning cycle",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "cash_pressure",
      "formula": "cash_pressure = clamp((working_capital_days/45) × (1 + demand_change/100) × 38 + fixed_investment × 0.24, 0, 160)",
      "note": "A directional scenario index; it is not a cash-flow forecast."
    },
    {
      "id": "model-quality_exposure",
      "label": "Quality exposure",
      "value": "9.5",
      "unit": "index",
      "period": "one planning cycle",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "quality_exposure",
      "formula": "quality_exposure = clamp(rework_rate + adoption_drag × 0.45 − retention_change × 0.20, 0, 100)",
      "note": "A directional scenario index; it is not an assurance assessment."
    },
    {
      "id": "model-resilience_index",
      "label": "Resilience",
      "value": "83.08",
      "unit": "index",
      "period": "one planning cycle",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "source_ids": [],
      "calculation_id": "resilience_index",
      "formula": "resilience_index = clamp(100 − cash_pressure × 0.28 − quality_exposure × 0.52 + retention_change × 0.45, 0, 120)",
      "note": "A comparative scenario index; it is not organisational resilience certification."
    }
  ],
  "calculations": [
    {
      "id": "productive_capacity",
      "label": "Productive capacity",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "formula": "productive_capacity = 100 × (1 + capacity_gain/100) × clamp(1 − adoption_drag/100, 0.2, 1.2) × clamp(1 − rework_rate/100, 0.2, 1.1)",
      "input_ids": [
        "capacity_gain",
        "adoption_drag",
        "rework_rate"
      ],
      "source_ids": [],
      "unit": "index",
      "boundary": "A relative scenario index; it is not measured output or a forecast."
    },
    {
      "id": "contribution_index",
      "label": "Contribution",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "formula": "contribution_index = 100 × (1 + demand_change/100) × (1 + price_change/100) × productive_capacity/100 − fixed_investment × 0.35",
      "input_ids": [
        "demand_change",
        "price_change",
        "productive_capacity",
        "fixed_investment"
      ],
      "source_ids": [],
      "unit": "index",
      "boundary": "A comparative scenario index before tax and finance; it is not profit."
    },
    {
      "id": "cash_pressure",
      "label": "Cash pressure",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "formula": "cash_pressure = clamp((working_capital_days/45) × (1 + demand_change/100) × 38 + fixed_investment × 0.24, 0, 160)",
      "input_ids": [
        "working_capital_days",
        "demand_change",
        "fixed_investment"
      ],
      "source_ids": [],
      "unit": "index",
      "boundary": "A directional scenario index; it is not a cash-flow forecast."
    },
    {
      "id": "quality_exposure",
      "label": "Quality exposure",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "formula": "quality_exposure = clamp(rework_rate + adoption_drag × 0.45 − retention_change × 0.20, 0, 100)",
      "input_ids": [
        "rework_rate",
        "adoption_drag",
        "retention_change"
      ],
      "source_ids": [],
      "unit": "index",
      "boundary": "A directional scenario index; it is not an assurance assessment."
    },
    {
      "id": "resilience_index",
      "label": "Resilience",
      "classification": "modelled",
      "formula": "resilience_index = clamp(100 − cash_pressure × 0.28 − quality_exposure × 0.52 + retention_change × 0.45, 0, 120)",
      "input_ids": [
        "cash_pressure",
        "quality_exposure",
        "retention_change"
      ],
      "source_ids": [],
      "unit": "index",
      "boundary": "A comparative scenario index; it is not organisational resilience certification."
    }
  ],
  "sandbox": {
    "formula_version": "growth-capacity-v1",
    "title": "Operating-condition scenario: Why C Climate Physical Risk Needs Evidence Before Commitment",
    "question": "What must be established before acting on “Why C Climate Physical Risk Needs Evidence Before Commitment”?",
    "boundary": "An educational comparison of disclosed operating conditions; it is not an observed baseline, causal estimate or forecast.",
    "horizon": "one planning cycle",
    "formulae": [
      "productive_capacity = 100 × (1 + capacity_gain/100) × clamp(1 − adoption_drag/100, 0.2, 1.2) × clamp(1 − rework_rate/100, 0.2, 1.1)",
      "contribution_index = 100 × (1 + demand_change/100) × (1 + price_change/100) × productive_capacity/100 − fixed_investment × 0.35",
      "quality_exposure = clamp(rework_rate + adoption_drag × 0.45 − retention_change × 0.20, 0, 100)",
      "cash_pressure = clamp((working_capital_days/45) × (1 + demand_change/100) × 38 + fixed_investment × 0.24, 0, 160)",
      "resilience_index = clamp(100 − cash_pressure × 0.28 − quality_exposure × 0.52 + retention_change × 0.45, 0, 120)"
    ],
    "assumptions": [
      "Every input is a disclosed scenario value selected for exploration, not an observed baseline.",
      "The formula expresses chosen directional relationships; it does not estimate causality.",
      "The output indices compare states inside this model and do not forecast an organisation's result."
    ],
    "inputs": [
      {
        "id": "demand_change",
        "label": "Demand change",
        "value": 5.0,
        "minimum": -50.0,
        "maximum": 100.0,
        "step": 1.0,
        "unit": "%",
        "meaning": "Scenario change in addressable demand."
      },
      {
        "id": "price_change",
        "label": "Price change",
        "value": 0.0,
        "minimum": -30.0,
        "maximum": 50.0,
        "step": 1.0,
        "unit": "%",
        "meaning": "Scenario change in achieved price."
      },
      {
        "id": "capacity_gain",
        "label": "Capacity gain",
        "value": 8.0,
        "minimum": -20.0,
        "maximum": 100.0,
        "step": 1.0,
        "unit": "%",
        "meaning": "Scenario change in usable operating capacity."
      },
      {
        "id": "adoption_drag",
        "label": "Adoption drag",
        "value": 10.0,
        "minimum": 0.0,
        "maximum": 100.0,
        "step": 1.0,
        "unit": "%",
        "meaning": "Share of potential capacity lost to adoption friction."
      },
      {
        "id": "rework_rate",
        "label": "Rework rate",
        "value": 5.0,
        "minimum": 0.0,
        "maximum": 50.0,
        "step": 1.0,
        "unit": "%",
        "meaning": "Scenario share of work requiring correction."
      },
      {
        "id": "fixed_investment",
        "label": "Fixed investment",
        "value": 12.0,
        "minimum": 0.0,
        "maximum": 100.0,
        "step": 1.0,
        "unit": "index points",
        "meaning": "Relative up-front investment burden."
      },
      {
        "id": "working_capital_days",
        "label": "Working-capital days",
        "value": 45.0,
        "minimum": 0.0,
        "maximum": 180.0,
        "step": 1.0,
        "unit": "days",
        "meaning": "Scenario delay between expenditure and cash recovery."
      },
      {
        "id": "retention_change",
        "label": "Retention change",
        "value": 0.0,
        "minimum": -50.0,
        "maximum": 50.0,
        "step": 1.0,
        "unit": "%",
        "meaning": "Scenario change in retained people or customers."
      }
    ],
    "outputs": [
      {
        "id": "productive_capacity",
        "label": "Productive capacity",
        "value": 92.34,
        "unit": "index",
        "direction": "higher",
        "explanation": "A relative scenario index; it is not measured output or a forecast."
      },
      {
        "id": "contribution_index",
        "label": "Contribution",
        "value": 92.757,
        "unit": "index",
        "direction": "higher",
        "explanation": "A comparative scenario index before tax and finance; it is not profit."
      },
      {
        "id": "cash_pressure",
        "label": "Cash pressure",
        "value": 42.78,
        "unit": "index",
        "direction": "lower",
        "explanation": "A directional scenario index; it is not a cash-flow forecast."
      },
      {
        "id": "quality_exposure",
        "label": "Quality exposure",
        "value": 9.5,
        "unit": "index",
        "direction": "lower",
        "explanation": "A directional scenario index; it is not an assurance assessment."
      },
      {
        "id": "resilience_index",
        "label": "Resilience",
        "value": 83.0816,
        "unit": "index",
        "direction": "higher",
        "explanation": "A comparative scenario index; it is not organisational resilience certification."
      }
    ],
    "sensitivity_note": "Move one disclosed input at a time to see which assumption changes the comparison first.",
    "switching_value": "Use the controls to locate the point at which the preferred direction changes; the interface reports a scenario boundary, not an observed threshold.",
    "alternative_explanation": "A different result may reflect input timing, scope or omitted conditions rather than the relationship tested here."
  },
  "implementation": [
    {
      "order": 1,
      "action": "Name the decision and its boundary.",
      "owner": "Named decision owner",
      "evidence": "Retained source packet",
      "measure": "Decision and boundary recorded",
      "review_point": "Qualification review"
    },
    {
      "order": 2,
      "action": "Test the operating condition against retained evidence.",
      "owner": "Named operating owner",
      "evidence": "Disclosed scenario and evidence register",
      "measure": "Switching condition recorded",
      "review_point": "Controlled operating review"
    },
    {
      "order": 3,
      "action": "Record the outcome and return the learning.",
      "owner": "Named evidence owner",
      "evidence": "Outcome and learning record",
      "measure": "Learning returned to the next decision",
      "review_point": "Learning review"
    }
  ],
  "unknowns": [
    "The organisation-specific operating baseline is not established.",
    "Transfer of the cited mechanism to this organisation is not tested here."
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "find_tender-a41d2ccbd03da63b",
      "lane": "current-development",
      "family": "procurement-record",
      "publisher": "Find a Tender OCDS",
      "title": "C1345 - Climate Physical Risk Assessment Services",
      "url": "https://www.find-tender.service.gov.uk/Notice/079058-2026",
      "published_at": "2026-08-19T13:31:10+00:00",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-08-19T16:00:16.645393+00:00",
      "evidence_type": "official procurement notice",
      "authority_class": "primary",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "reference_period": "",
      "licence": "Open Government Licence v3.0",
      "digest": "a60419b8a7a5b9c415c168ecbc5081a3eda75f9ade963caeb04360f829a1dbaa",
      "summary": "The National Wealth Fund (NWF) is seeking to appoint a supplier to provide climate physical risk assessment services, including a digital tool/platform and associated…",
      "current_trigger": true,
      "access_state": "verified",
      "date_basis": "retained-record",
      "origin": "retained"
    },
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      "id": "field-df286322a61085d74fb7",
      "lane": "official-market-data",
      "family": "bankofengland.co.uk",
      "publisher": "Bank of England",
      "title": "The Retail Payments Infrastructure Board launches consultation on the next generation UK payments infrastructure | Bank of England – the UK's central bank",
      "url": "https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/2026/june/rpib-launches-consultation-on-next-generation-uk-payments-infrastructure",
      "published_at": "2026-06-25",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T09:09:54.674202+01:00",
      "evidence_type": "current official payments infrastructure development",
      "authority_class": "primary",
      "geography": "United Kingdom",
      "reference_period": "",
      "licence": "Linked source; no full-text republication",
      "digest": "fda2ac7284a8c7b8b3200b6442a75aa31e78e67c083844a178677232b5c96df8",
      "summary": "Published on 25 June 2026 News release Today marks a major milestone in the modernisation of the UK's payments landscape, with the Retail Payments…",
      "current_trigger": false,
      "access_state": "verified",
      "date_basis": "source-page",
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    },
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      "id": "field-39331504dc7f2db728ca",
      "lane": "mechanism-research",
      "family": "pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov",
      "publisher": "PubMed Central",
      "title": "Factors that influence the implementation of e-health: a systematic review of systematic reviews (an update) - PMC",
      "url": "https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5080780/",
      "published_at": "2026-09-18T09:09:54.674202+01:00",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T09:09:54.674202+01:00",
      "evidence_type": "peer-reviewed systematic review of systematic reviews",
      "authority_class": "research",
      "geography": "International evidence base; healthcare implementation context",
      "reference_period": "",
      "licence": "Linked source; no full-text republication",
      "digest": "3759f60980c517838055100b4972ee45b396c590c1144ffa40273d91c330eae8",
      "summary": "[…] Data synthesis The original review had used a thematic approach to analysing and synthesising the data, together with an analysis based on normalization…",
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      "date_basis": "retrieval-date",
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      "id": "field-9bb9b142626eddc98720",
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      "family": "gov.uk",
      "publisher": "Department for Science, Innovation and Technology",
      "title": "Factors influencing firms’ adoption of advanced technologies: A rapid evidence review - GOV.UK",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/barriers-and-enablers-to-advanced-technology-adoption-for-uk-businesses/factors-influencing-firms-adoption-of-advanced-technologies-a-rapid-evidence-review",
      "published_at": "2025-06-02",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T09:09:54.674202+01:00",
      "evidence_type": "government-commissioned rapid evidence review",
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      "licence": "Linked source; no full-text republication",
      "digest": "64cf71a1b3e41c926ba5c396e21dbdb3c6a3acbbede775f728d2bc867644ed41",
      "summary": "[…] The 11 main factors we identify, each consisting of a series of enablers and barriers, are: It is interesting to note that many…",
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      "id": "field-81a9a6bfe5cc5e80653a",
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      "family": "gov.uk",
      "publisher": "Government Digital Service",
      "title": "How to set performance metrics for your service - Service Manual - GOV.UK",
      "url": "https://www.gov.uk/service-manual/measuring-success/how-to-set-performance-metrics-for-your-service",
      "published_at": "2017-12-05",
      "retrieved_at": "2026-09-18T09:09:54.674202+01:00",
      "evidence_type": "official service performance measurement guidance",
      "authority_class": "primary",
      "geography": "United Kingdom central government service context",
      "reference_period": "",
      "licence": "Linked source; no full-text republication",
      "digest": "b40190a2b6052c14344dda52621d53cf57c4858eae0b68397889f20942e23156",
      "summary": "[…] We will measure how long it takes a user to make an application using the online form we build.",
      "current_trigger": false,
      "access_state": "verified",
      "date_basis": "source-page",
      "origin": "web"
    }
  ],
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    {
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      "reason": "Inspect the connected market state."
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  "visual": {
    "image": "/media/editions/fields/decision-file-2026-w38-why-c-climate-physical-risk-needs-evidence-before-commitment/field-study.webp",
    "og": "/media/editions/fields/decision-file-2026-w38-why-c-climate-physical-risk-needs-evidence-before-commitment/field-study-og.jpg",
    "alt": "A deterministic radial evidence field showing distinct source lanes for the study Why C Climate Physical Risk Needs Evidence Before Commitment.",
    "grammar": "Each spoke is one cited source. Gold marks the current trigger; cyan the market baseline; blue mechanism research; rose implementation evidence; and green contrary evidence. arc length reflects the number of accepted sources in that lane. Motion on the page scans this fixed edition and does not imply changing data.",
    "source_ids": [
      "find_tender-a41d2ccbd03da63b",
      "field-df286322a61085d74fb7",
      "field-39331504dc7f2db728ca",
      "field-9bb9b142626eddc98720",
      "field-81a9a6bfe5cc5e80653a"
    ]
  },
  "provenance": {
    "version": "field-studies-2.0",
    "generated_at": "2026-09-18T09:09:54.674202+01:00",
    "source_window_days": 14,
    "source_packet_digest": "c47fb254dd513885e510fd700eabf85d99f78a8c640683c386550b1551bf887d",
    "retrieval_status": "current primary trigger plus cited external research lanes",
    "correction_history": [],
    "data_url": "/data/field/studies/decision-file-2026-w38-why-c-climate-physical-risk-needs-evidence-before-commitment.json",
    "method_url": "/briefings/method/"
  },
  "living_week": "2026-W38",
  "living_phase": "application",
  "revision": 3,
  "update_history": [
    {
      "phase": "signal",
      "updated_at": "2026-09-14T09:07:07.447187+01:00",
      "label": "Signal opened"
    },
    {
      "phase": "evidence",
      "updated_at": "2026-09-16T09:09:42.619483+01:00",
      "label": "Evidence tested"
    },
    {
      "phase": "application",
      "updated_at": "2026-09-18T09:09:54.674202+01:00",
      "label": "Decision file completed"
    }
  ]
}